Tuesday, July 10, 2007


In this race for the presidency in 2008, it is clear that the majority of voters still do not have a clue as to whom they will vote. Mainstream media is quick to point out that McCain is dropping in the polls, and also, is running on empty when it comes to money on hand.

However, all of this early speculating on the polls proves how erratic this election cycle is.

A look on pollingreport.com will show that despite what the media is saying, McCain still is very competitive. In all the major media polls, CNN, CBS, FOXNews, etc. McCain holds a second to third place lead over Romney, who despite his money and advertising on those markets, still sits in the single digits. What is more revealing about pollingreport.com is that 61% of Republicans are pining for more choices in the race. I have to read that as a lot of Republicans are unsettled over who to pick.

Romney's "lead" in Iowa, as reported in recent press, is really a paper tiger. Without Giuliani and McCain actively competing in the Ames Straw Poll, Romney is the the only top-tier candidate there, and subsequently, the only choice. You have to realize that when players like Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, and Mike Huckabee are exerting vast resources in Iowa, and you are missing the top two rivals, it is a meaningless poll. Romney in this early Iowa decision will be like the New York Yankees going to trounce the Bad News Bears of the Republican Party. The only advantage for Romney would be to get a win, a weak win, going into New Hampshire. That "first in the nation vote" where McCain has always been a favorite, may occur as early as December of 2007.

What will be interesting with all of this polling is that when the lower tier candidates start dropping out by December, we will get to see who they will support. Will candidates like Huckabee, Tommy Thompson, and Brownback openly support a pro-choice Giuliani or a flip-flopping Romney? Will they see the national polls and realize that only McCain or Giuliani can upset Hillary Clinton?

All of this speculation proves that we know nothing about this race until New Hampshire.

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