Friday, October 31, 2008

Karl Rove says polls have problems

From the Wall Street Journal Opinion by Karl Rove

There has been an explosion of polls this presidential election. Through yesterday, there have been 728 national polls with head-to-head matchups of the candidates, 215 in October alone. In 2004, there were just 239 matchup polls, with 67 of those in October. At this rate, there may be almost as many national polls in October of 2008 as there were during the entire year in 2004.

Some polls are sponsored by reputable news organizations, others by publicity-eager universities or polling firms on the make. None have the scientific precision we imagine.

For example, academics gathered by the American Political Science Association at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington on Aug. 31, 2000, to make forecasts declared that Al Gore would be the winner. Their models told them so. Mr. Gore would receive between 53% and 60% of the two-party vote; Gov. George W. Bush would get between just 40% and 47%. Impersonal demographic and economic forces had settled the contest, they said. They were wrong.

Right now, all the polls show Barack Obama ahead of John McCain, but the margins vary widely (in part because some polls use an "expanded" definition of a likely voter, while others use a "traditional" polling model, which assumes turnout will mirror historical trends but with a higher turnout among African-Americans and young voters).

On Monday, there were seven nationwide polls, with the candidates as close as three points in the Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll and as far apart as 10 points in Gallup's "expanded" model. On Tuesday, the Gallup "traditional" model poll had the candidates separated by two points and the Pew poll had them separated by 15. On Wednesday, Battleground, Rasmussen and Gallup "traditional" model polls had the candidates separated by three points while Diageo/Hotline and Gallup "expanded" model polls had the spread at seven points.

Polls can reveal underlying or emerging trends and help campaigns decide where to focus. The danger is that commentators use them to declare a race over before the votes are in. This can demoralize the underdog's supporters, depressing turnout. I know that from experience.

On election night in 2000 Al Hunt -- then a columnist for this newspaper and a commentator on CNN -- was the first TV talking head to erroneously declare that Florida's polls had closed, when those in the Panhandle were open for another hour. Shortly before 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, Judy Woodruff said: "A big call to make. CNN announces that we call Florida in the Al Gore column."

Mr. Hunt and Ms. Woodruff were not only wrong. What they did was harmful. We know, for example, that turnout in 2000 compared to 1996 improved more in states whose polls had closed by the time Ms. Woodruff all but declared the contest over. The data suggests that as many as 500,000 people in the Midwest and West didn't bother to vote after the networks indicated Florida cinched the race for Mr. Gore.

I recall, too, the media's screwup in 2004, when exit-polling data leaked in the afternoon. It showed President Bush losing Pennsylvania by 17 points, New Hampshire by 18, behind among white males in Florida, and projected South Carolina and Colorado too close to call. It looked like the GOP would be wiped out.

Bob Shrum famously became the first to congratulate Sen. John Kerry by addressing him as "President Kerry." Commentators let the exit polls color their coverage for hours until their certainty was undone by actual vote tallies.

Polls have proliferated this year in part because it is much easier for journalists to devote the limited space in their papers or on TV to the horse-race aspect of the election rather than its substance. And I admit, I've aided and abetted this process.

In the campaign's final week, though, the candidates can offer little new substance, so attention turns to the political landscape, and there's no question Mr. McCain is in a difficult place.

The last national poll that showed Mr. McCain ahead came out Sept. 25 and the 232 polls since then have all shown Mr. Obama leading. Only one time in the past 14 presidential elections has a candidate won the popular vote and the Electoral College after trailing in the Gallup Poll the week before the election: Ronald Reagan in 1980.

But the question that matters is the margin. If Mr. McCain is down by 3%, his task is doable, if difficult. If he's down by 9%, his task is essentially impossible. In truth, however, no one knows for sure what kind of polling deficit is insurmountable or even which poll is correct. All of us should act with the proper understanding that nothing is yet decided.

As for me, I've already cast my absentee ballot in Kerr County, Texas -- joyfully, enthusiastically marking the straight Republican column. I would like to have joined the line Tuesday outside the polling place in Ingram, where I've been registered the past few years. But I will be in New York, part of the vast horde analyzing exit polls, dissecting returns, and pontificating on consequences. I'll thoroughly enjoy myself that night, and probably feel guilty the next morning. But this year's 728 national polls and the thousands of state polls made me do it.

Mr. Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

The McCain surge begins today

From Zogby:

UTICA, New York – Republican John McCain continues to gain on Democrat Barack Obama, reducing Obama’s lead to 5.3 points with just over a week to go before Election Day, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby national daily tracking poll shows.

The race now stands at 49.4% to 44.1% in favor of Obama. Obama led McCain by 9.5 points in yesterday’s report.

“There is no question that this race continues to tighten and that McCain is finding his message again,” said Pollster John Zogby. “It is after all about the economy and that is how McCain tightened it up the last time. I have said over and over again, when he focuses on extraneous issues, he screws up. In today's single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%. I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go.” (Source: Libertarian Republican)

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Senator Obama underpaying female staff

Obama hypocritical on pay for women

The two charts will say it all (from Carpe Diem)

Senator Obama pays his own female staff quite a bit less than his male staff. No spin, just the facts.

Oh, by the way, and I'll let you go to the original post, John McCain pays almost the same to his staff ... actually just a little bit more to his female staffers.

Thanks to Doctor Perry for this very visual example of Senator Obama's hypocrisy

Monday, October 20, 2008

Real Estate Professionals on McCain and the polls

I get to write on Active Rain and converse often with real estate professionals, (Post is included in group: Real Estate Professionals for John McCain ) some who are supporters of John McCain and others who aren't. Here's a post and commenting interaction that some of you may enjoy reading:

Voters - Use your heads, you're being tricked

Disgusted with vapid voting trends

Are voters so easily manipulated?

Are the voters of the United States of America going to allow themselves to be manipulated by netroots trolls, Obama-mania, the major media and "prevailing opinion?"

First the facts:

  • The race for President is actually too close to call
  • Millions of new registrations have been submitted to vote, but they are untested voters who may or may not even show up at the polls.
  • When polling registered voters Obama tends to lead by a larger amount than when polling "likely" voters.
  • No one won the debates, I can't even say the debates were all that interesting

But, with all this said, the television media is reporting that Obama is running away with the election. How?

For an interesting read, that will turn your stomach, read Sack/Smurf/Freepfest on Daily Kos and see how the left is manipulating the American voting public. It's working by the way. So I return to my original question: Are voters going to allow themselves to be that easily tricked and told what to do?

I'm afraid the answer is yes. When the media tells the average voter that Obama would handle the economy better, they believe. When the media tells the average voter that Obama would help them get a job, make more money, get free healthcare, or a whole host of goodies, they believe. I'm just a bit frustrated today with Americans. When a couple hundred bloggers can sack the online polls, twist the issues, and manipulate the voting public .. what have we become but lazy and irresponsible democracy.

PREVIOUS POST: Presidential Race tightens to 4 points

14 Comments (So far) on Voters - Use your heads, you're being tricked

Steve ~ The American media will have alot of explaining to do trying to elect another extention of the Jimmy Carter Administration. Long lines at gas stations becase like Obama he demonized big oil and taxed and taxed until it cost American tax poyers dearly. We are taxed on eltricity, taxed on cellular phones, taxed on marriage, taxed on alcohol, taxed on life and tax when we die. Obama never saw a tax he didn't vote on, now he says he is a moderate like Bill Clinton.

Well, his voting record made him the number one liberal in the senate, now he says don't pay attention to his past, its meaningless.

10/15/2008 08:24 AM by Nicholas Goglucci, CRS ~ CLHMS, e-PRO ~ Re/Max Professional in South Florida (RE/Max In Motion, Inc.)

People think that movie tickets are high in the US? I heard last night that it costs 15-16 Euro's to see a movie in Spain because of gov't taxes.

These poor (and I mean that literally) people in this country who think Obama will be their savior and tax only the rich. They don't know what they're in store for.

10/15/2008 08:30 AM by Peter Z. Nikic

Gallup has race at 3 points good news today at least, I think the ACORN and Ayres drums are taking a toll on Obama's lead, tightening things back to dead even going into the final debate and 18 days of campaigning

10/15/2008 12:14 PM by Steve Dalton - Northwest Indiana (First Financial Trust Mortgage )

Steve - Wishful thinking if you believe that McCain / Palin stands a chance at this election.

10/15/2008 12:16 PM by John Guiney e-PRO, CBR (Keller Williams Realty)

I'm NOT going to be tricked into believing that a man who has made the kind of crazy decisions that McCain has made, changing them every couple of days, can POSSIBLY do better than an intelligent and thoughtful Obama will.

10/15/2008 12:31 PM by Leslie Prest, Prest Realty, Payson, AZ


I totally agree with you. The media hopes if they keep the Obama is up 14 in the polls, the American people will think it's no use to go vote because Obama's going to win anyway. It is a trick used by the "driveby media" to get their liberal buddy in there. Look at all the people not buying it...that's why their pushing him so hard. Like my pastor says, the heat gets turned up when you get closer to your goal. If it wasn't so close they would simply set back & coast into the presidency. All of Obama's planned, calculated speaches cannot take the place of McCains experience;period.

Yes they do have a chance of winning because the American people are NOT as dumb as Obama want them to believe!

10/16/2008 10:05 AM by Diana Lyons (Coldwell Banker Townside)

There is only one qualified person in this election who deserves to be President! Note!! I said deserves to be President. A forceful take charge leader is what we need right now. One Nation Under God beliefs who will stand by OLD GLORY, through thick and thin. I may not believe in everything McCain stands for-but-If I needed someone to cover my back in a fight it sure to hell wouldn't be?**** What's his name again?

10/16/2008 06:34 PM by matt mathews (mathews realty associates llc)
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Don't like him...don't trust him... where does he get all his funds for his campaign??? I get several flyers a week most looking like they come from McCain but when they are opened are just Obama McCain bashing pieces... Wake up America... We need an american who believes in America and our Pledge as president...

10/20/2008 10:34 AM by Caron's Gateway Real Estate
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Matt - It sounds like McCain would be a great bar buddy for you. I prefer a President who leads the country in a manner such that I won't have to worry about young Americans having to sacrifice their lives in unnecessary wars.

10/20/2008 10:44 AM by Tchaka Owen (Elite Coastal Properties)
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I agree with you Steve. When Powell threw in his backing for Obama it confirmed what I knew all along. People don't care what the man stands for, they are voting for him because either he is the same race as they are or because they are white people who want to prove they aren't prejudice by voting for any stupid thing or because the seriously believe this man will make this country better and are buying into his bs.

The way I see it....if they turn this country into what Obama wants to turn it into, I may as well pack up and move to Tuscany. This won't be America anymore anyway so why put up with the morons here any longer. We will just be one big European Union with one world leader I guess eventually and I've always liked the idea of Italy so why not just go?

10/20/2008 10:46 AM by Cheri' Smith (ERA Whitaker Realty)
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Cheri - Do you think all of the people supporting McCain are doing so because of his race?

10/20/2008 10:56 AM by Tchaka Owen (Elite Coastal Properties)
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Cheri - Spoken like a true Palin supporter. If things aren't to your liking just join an indepenence party or flee the country. Talk about bs.

10/20/2008 11:02 AM by John Guiney e-PRO, CBR (Keller Williams Realty)
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Steve I don't believe the polls, but let them keep predicting big wins, let the socialist elite stay home and plan victory parties while hometown America goes to the polls and elects McCain

10/20/2008 06:08 PM by Hugh Krone Sussex County NJ Century 21 Realtor (Century21BillSemmens)
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Thanks to all of you who commented.

Although it's scarry right now, I feel pretty good that the race is tightening and Americans aren't prepared to be told who to vote for by the media.

10/20/2008 08:17 PM by Steve Dalton - Northwest Indiana (First Financial Trust Mortgage )

First Financial Trust Mortgage

Healthcare plans compared

Hat Tip to ARRA New Service and Bill Smith:

On health care, we have reports on each candidate’s plan:
The Obama Health Care Plan: More Power to Washington
Very little in the Obama health plan is new or original. A number of its policy initiatives are recycled from the ill-fated Clinton health plan of 1994 and the Kerry health plan of 2004 and bear a stark resemblance to a more detailed proposal by the Common wealth Fund, a prominent liberal think tank. In general, the Obama plan would give the federal government even more control of health care dollars and decisions—a radical departure from the decentralized decision-making system that characterizes employer-based insurance and state-based insurance regulation.

The McCain Health Care Plan: More Power to Families
McCain's vision for health care reform is underscored by a principled commitment to personal freedom. He focuses on reforming the system to empower individuals and families to make health care decisions and to control their health care dollar.

Having owned a small business, I can attest to the decisions faced by small business owners. Allowing employees to purchase their own insurance, so it's portable and private, is a much better idea for job creation and power for families. They don't want their employers having all that information or that power of them if they decide to change jobs. Giving employees a tax credit is terrific, letting government control that money is terrible. Easy call me for me: John McCain is for families making up their own minds about health care.

All lines lead back to Barack

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Spotlight - McCain Bloggers stay on message

While many of the Obama people are attacking Senator McCain for being "angry" or "old" or whatever attack ... John McCain bloggers are continuing to ask for positive things from our nation's leaders. There really is a difference.
ARRA News Service
News Service  

Hank Williams Jr - "The McCain-Palin Tradition"

What's Missing at Barack Obama's Political Campaign Rallies? #current

 blog it

Sunday, October 12, 2008

McCain gaining on Obama - dead heat now

Presidential Race tightens to 4 points

Let's not choose some weird poll, let's go with Gallup today! The headline suggests that the race has tightened to 7 points, not the 4 points in my headline, but dig in and read the whole post to get the gist of the estimation they are doing.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data

So call just about anyone and Obama has only a 7 point nationwide lead, call likely voters and it's even less at 4%. This after the media told the world that Obama was running away with it, this after the media suggested that "everyone" was more comfortable with untested and inexperienced Obama when confronting the complex issues in the credit markets.

Right! This race has been and will be a toss-up, the winner being the candidate who's core supporters show up on election day. Ohio is going to be 50-50 and with some liberal judges kicking in some help, holding polls open for extra hours, we may be 12 plus hours late before we have a winner.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Follow all McCain posts on social media

Dipity makes it easy, but McCain is getting beat on their "followers" so go to the site and sign up and vote McCain, I voted and moved the percentage 1% with my one vote. 100 of us could swing the entire poll.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Brady Quinn Notre Dame QB - with Palin and McCain

Obama is following along

Has it occurred to you that Barack Obama is quite the follower?

  1. He wanted big tax increases, then when he realized this wasn't acceptable to the middle class, he moved the ball to only attack those making over $250,000. (Not really though since he also attacks capital gains which will affect millions of small business owners)
  2. He was against oil drilling, until the whole #dontgo movement proved that a huge majority of Americans want drilling now. So he changed his tune.
  3. He was against nuclear power, until again he listened to real Americans ask "why not" and now he's for nuclear power.
  4. He wanted to spend billions and billions to "fix" lots of problems, many that government caused in the first place ... and now when he sees that Americans aren't all that sure government spending can fix anything ... he says he wants to cut? Cut what Barack? Cut the Energy Department? Cut the Education Department? Cut pay for Congress?
We often see politicians run to the center in general elections, but this is pretty amazing to watch, a grown man giving up on his liberal tendancies to get elected. Or is he really? Perhaps he's just talking and then he'll do what he's always done as a politician.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Palin still commanding huge crowds ... Biden?

PALIN IN CARSON: Here's a report from someone who was there. And below are a couple of pictures emailed to me by readers. (From Instapundit)


Jon Voight helped fire up the crowd. He spoke about how when John McCain was in Vietnam, he had been allied with the anti-war left. But then he saw how liberals turned their backs on the violence that followed our withdrawal from Vietnam. He criticized them for wanting the same fate for Iraq and praised McCain for helping prevent it.

So ... should we let the Major Media tell us that Barack has it in the bag ... or watch Americans nationwide and their avalanche of support for Country First and McCain - Palin.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

John McCain Online - Join and Engage

A few articles this week were focused on Obama's domination online and in social media. Although the Obama team has done terrific work, and ground breaking at that, much of the fault of this statistic is the supporters of John McCain.

We aren't as enthusiastic, we aren't as engaged. There are 30 days left, if you support McCain-Palin and don't want Obama-Biden as your future leaders ... then this is the time to get active online. Don't postpone again.

Places to get involved:

Go to the Official John McCain and Sarah Palin campaign site. But don't just read the homepage and leave, dig in, there are ways to get involved, ways to get local information, ways to order materials. Spend the time to learn.

Join Twitter and immediately follow @JohnMcCain this Twitter profile will feature all new posts by John McCain's campaign team, and especially great YouTube videos that you can forward to friend and relatives this month by email.

Join Facebook and join these groups for hour by hour updates:

Sarah Palin for Vice President (One Million Strong for Sarah)


McCain/Palin '08 (One Million Strong for the Mavericks)

This obviously is just a start on the list of facebook groups, If I had to guess I'd say there are ovr 200 facebook groups in support of John McCain's Presidency.

Ok, it's a start. Now if you look down the right hand side of this blog, you'll see a huge and growing list of over 200 private blogs that support John McCain. Go on a few today, and then instead of just reading the posts, leave a comment supporting McCain. The comments will help the blogger rank better on google and will help create the conversations needed to bring conservatives into the 21st Century.

We'll post more tomorrow, leave a comment if you've decided to follow the steps today.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Hoosiers for Senator John McCain

Over a year of blogging behind us, and we now approach the final couple weeks before our nation chooses a new President. Today, with the bailout bill a foregone conclusion and polls moving all over the place, I am thinking more and more about real Hoosiers in tough situations:

  • Military personnel overseas keeping the enemy there, and not letting them have the time to come here
  • Homeowners who are facing foreclosure due to unemployment or poor choices
  • Young married couples who want to buy a home, but the media keeps telling them to be afraid, be very afraid
  • Homeless men who aren't welcome at homeless shelters, those are reserved for women and children, but they too face problems
No, I've not gone to the liberal darkside, but there are legitimate problems that we as a city, state, and country need to face. We can overcome these challenges, we are Americans. But, boy do we desire and need solid straight talking leadership. More than at any time in the last year, we need Senator John McCain's style and character at the helm