Sunday, October 12, 2008

McCain gaining on Obama - dead heat now

Presidential Race tightens to 4 points

Let's not choose some weird poll, let's go with Gallup today! The headline suggests that the race has tightened to 7 points, not the 4 points in my headline, but dig in and read the whole post to get the gist of the estimation they are doing.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data

So call just about anyone and Obama has only a 7 point nationwide lead, call likely voters and it's even less at 4%. This after the media told the world that Obama was running away with it, this after the media suggested that "everyone" was more comfortable with untested and inexperienced Obama when confronting the complex issues in the credit markets.

Right! This race has been and will be a toss-up, the winner being the candidate who's core supporters show up on election day. Ohio is going to be 50-50 and with some liberal judges kicking in some help, holding polls open for extra hours, we may be 12 plus hours late before we have a winner.

No comments: