Friday, October 19, 2007

New Polls show McCain Most Likely to Beat Hillary

Recent polls indicate that if the election were held today, the race for the presidency would be close. We have always known that it would be. How close depends on who the Republican nominee will be. In head-to-head competition with Hillary Clinton, John McCain comes closest to beating her.

The October 9-10 FOXnews/Opinion Dynamics poll puts John McCain as the only republican who is competitive with HRC. Rudy trails Clinton by 4%, and Romney and Thompson would get trounced by 12%.

McCain 44%
Clinton 47%

Clinton 47%
Giuliani 43%

Clinton 50%
Thompson 38%

Clinton 50%
Romney 38%

This poll validates a recent Rasmussen poll that puts McCain only one point behind HRC, and Rudy at least 7% behind Hillary.

Christian Conservatives, like James Dobson, have already called for a third-party movement should a pro-abortion or weak pro-life candidate emerge from the Republican Primary. Romney has flip-flopped on abortion his whole public career, Rudy still is pro-choice publicly, and Thompson once lobbied for a pro-choice group. Only McCain has been a solid conservative his whole career, and could gain the support of the Christian Right, enough to win that 3% margin of error against HRC. Should another contender get the nod, Dobson might bolt with 10% of the Republican base and nominate their own candidate.

A third party Christian candidate delivers the race to HRC with any other contender.

McCain 44%
Clinton 47%

Clinton 47%
Giuliani 33%
Christian Third Party 10%

Clinton 50%
Thompson 28%
Christian Third Party 10%

Clinton 50%
Romney 28%
Christian Third Party 10%

Quoting McCain Chair Rick Davis:

“What do these polls mean? They mean that John McCain's experienced leadership, courageous service and the bold solutions he is proposing on the campaign trail are resonating with the American people. They also mean that our party can nominate a candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton without compromising the bedrock principles and values that are our party's foundation. Republican primary voters are figuring out that supporting a candidate who is not prepared to be Commander in Chief from day one, or one who is out of step with our party's core values, is a recipe for another Clinton Administration.”

In the final analysis, this is great news for McCain, and pretty good news for Huckabee too, who, as a definitive Christian Conservative, could make solid a McCain ticket even better, and ensure
a sure victory.

2 comments:

D.R. Schmidt said...

McCain and Huckabee are both good guys although I actually think that Huckabee just might have a better chance of winning down the stretch because the momentum for him is surging at the right time.

David G. Henry said...

Huckabee has a few baggage issues, being, he has zero experience in Domestic policy, and while he is the most articulate conservative in the race, he just hasn't caught fire. He is, by virtue of being a southern Baptist, southern governor, and southern, an excellent ticket-balancer. Plus, he becomes heir appearant to a one-term McCain presidency (either via retirement, death or defeat in 2012)